Who you think will win?
Trump about 60% chances. He is winning the blue collar vote in the swing/purple states. That blue collar vote is key on those states and those states are the ones that decide the general elections in the U.S. This is a phenomenon we did not see since Reagan. White workers from Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania , etc. are abandoning their natural house in the Democratic Party and joining the Republican Party just to vote for Trump. That will be decisive in November. Additionally there are several wild card variables that can help Trump if they occur: A) Leaks on Hillary’s email. They might come from Wikileaks or other sources. They can demonstrate corruption to a criminal level or at least seriously damage her image with voters. B) New criminal investigation to Hillary. There might be new evidence and the FBI or a special prosecutor might come with a new investigation. C) Trump uses all his muscle. Trump might donate $ 400 or 500 million to his campaign, buy the US National TV and inflict a knock out by the power of brute money. With or without the 2 potential wild card I still give Trump about 60% chances over Hillary.
Which candidate is more trustworthy and capable?
Trump. He has a ferocious personality and is a natural fighter. Hillary is manipulative, smart, and demagogically goes with the public opinion (against homosexual “marriage” when it was not popular, for it when it is popular). In a who is more capable to accomplish the mission, Trump wins. After all he already did the impossible already: defeated the Republican Party Establishment, the Bush Dynasty, the Marco Rubio “savior” status, and the extremely smart self promoting Cruz.
Who will deal better with Putin and Xi Jinping?
Trump. He will renegotiate US economic and trade deals with China which will bring high tension or pseudo conflict for a while but he will also ease the tension with China with his foreign policy. For example Trump most likely will also be a lot less interventionist in the Pacific/China Sea, and most likely remove the high altitude missile interceptors (THAAD system) from South Korea something that will make the relationship a lot easier. The new trade deals will begin to benefit the US a lot more and China will not be happy, but the less interventionist and less Hawkish foreign policy will compensate. The large US corporations that moved their production to China will have to adapt and bring back jobs to the US.
As per Putin, the relationship with Trump should be excellent as they have similar world views. Leaders with similar world view tend to have better relationship that those with opposite worldviews and personalities ( just look at the terrible relationship between the left wing secularist law professor Obama and the strong man spy master judo master Putin). Putin and Trump will most likely understand each other very well and Trump’s America First policy will suit well with Russia. Trump will stop the “real power behind the scene” policy towards Ukraine, stop NATO expansionism in Russia’s backyard and be far more cooperative with Russia in Syria. That and a policy based on pragmatism and not ideology and expansionism ( color revolutions and coup sponsorships) will be the base for a good relationship between Putin and Trump in addition to their similar personalities and worldviews.
Who will help the economy and create more jobs?
Trump will. His renegotiations of terms in trade with China will benefit the US economy. His potential efforts to bring back jobs will benefit blue collar workers (perhaps his strongest support base). Corporative revenue will somewhat shift from top earners and executives back to the workers. Trump will most likely keep union’s demands under control something that might make possible to bring back manufacturing jobs back to US soil. The America First foreign policy would help to keep spending and deficit under control. Trump will shift priority to the middle class and blue collar workers: manufacturing, coal miners, oil industry workers, automobile industry, etc. Free traders fundamentalists will sound the alarm and 2d nd 3d world trade partners will be uncomfortable but at the end it will benefit the US Main street workers and they will have to tolerate and adapt to it.
Who will deal with ISIS and the Middle East more effectively?
Trump as he will really coordinate with Russia to fight ISIS in Syria and Iraq and he will not be guided by ideology but by pragmatism. Trump will not follow the current confusing and contradictory policies in Syria (a classic trademark of Obama) but will work together with Russia for the simple and concrete objective to defeat the Sunni extremist in the area. I also expect Trump to be an honest broker in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and to follow a similar policy than the European Union in this regard. Economic policies would also help to negotiate from a better position with the Middle East oil providers as Trump might very well invest in local US oil production. I expect the Neocons and War Hawks a la K street lobbyists, McCains and Grahams, and New York country clubs to have a lot less influence and power over Trump than perhaps any other President in the US recent history.
What is your greatest concern about either one?
Hillary will continue ideological expansion as per the Cultural Marxism playbook and democratic fundamentalism in the world. She would be an interventionist and continue some of the nonsense policies in Syria and other countries. She might continue to poke the Russian bear in its backyard and will continue the color revolutions and “democratic coup” policies. She will not and cannot be an honest broker in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and will be at the mercy of the Neocons, Hawks, lobbyists and interest groups. I see a renewed Cold War II with Hillary and endless intervention in the foreign policy arena and free trade that will continue to sink the US manufacturing industry in the economic one. She will act out of ideology and expand policies contrary to many countries Moral and religious practices: she will target Hungary because of its Christian constitution, several African countries because of their traditional views in marriage and soon or later even Muslim countries. Hillary’s Frankfurt School ideology will bring contradictions in policies that would make harder to engage terrorism effectively. As for Trump I worried about global and internal sabotage. Trump is despised by Neocons and Hawks of Establishment of the Republican Party and universally by leftists and secularists. As for the US and international Press, Trump is something like an Antichrist/new Hitler/apocalyptic monster that must be attacked and defeated at all cost 24/7 in supreme effort. European Union elitists see Trump as their declared enemy. Therefore I worry about how much the global, economic, political and total sabotage from all these groups might restrain a Trump Presidency. From CNN, MSNBC, ABC to the K Street Lobbyists and interest groups, to democratic fundamentalists in the European Union to Black Lives Matters and La Raza, etc., etc., etc., I worried about global and total sabotage against the results of American Democracy.
Anything else you want to add?
I think this is one of the most, if not the most, decisive election on US history. The Republican Party of the Neocons and Bush Dynasty is forever gone. The mythical “Silent Majority” and the Deep America finally, after more than 50 years of continuous indoctrination in Cultural Marxism and politically correctness, found a representative and voice in Trump (an extraordinary political and social phenomenon by itself). A Hillary victory will be the end of the Judeo-Christian America and the complete and irreversible triumph of the Frankfurt School inspired by Gramsci and propelled by Adorno, Marcuse, Benjamin, Habermas and Horkheimer. Not only the US Supreme Court will be completely shaped and controlled by the New Left with Scalia and the soon to retire Clarence Thomas replaced by Frankfurt School alumni but also the political correctness victory will become irreversible. The “old” America will be forever gone and the Cultural War will be completely lost to the Traditionalists with a Hillary’s victory not to mention a new Cold War that might, if the pragmatic heads don’t act, become a hot war. November 2016 means for the American Democracy a decisive point that will mark the next generations to come and the definitive path of the country.”
*This article was originally published in The Daily Journalist.